Oddsmakers see Aaron Jones most likely landing in Miami

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The Packers didn’t apply the franchise tag to running back Aaron Jones. The Packers still want to sign him, but to do so they’ll have to successfully persuade him to not sign with another team.

As usual, money talks. Who will speak the most loudly?

The folks at PointsBet have identified the odds regarding Jones’ next team. The favorites, at +325, are the Dolphins. (Bet $100 to make $325.) Next on the list are the 49ers, at +375. The Packers come in third at +500.

Also on the list are the Cardinals, Jets, and Steelers (+500 each), the Seahawks (+800), the Bears (+1100), and the Falcons (+1700).

There’s a loose rule of thumb in league circles that star running backs only get big money from the team with which they became stars, and that the open market usually doesn’t result in a major payday for a tailback. (Le’Veon Bell is the exception, but he still didn’t get close to what he wanted.) The Packers clearly hope to break that trend, paying Jones less than other team have paid home-grown tailbacks — but possibly more than someone else would pay him.

It’s a risky proposition for the Packers, since nothing stops him from taking as much or more with another team. And with no state income tax in Florida, equal offers made by the Dolphins and Packers would be better in Miami.